What you need to know for the week ahead.
US jobs report, factory orders and non-manufacturing PMI, Brexit, central bank meetings from RBA and BoC, Eurozone retail sales, Germany’s industrial orders and output figures for July and Australian Q2 GDP and retail sales will dominate the week. In US, the non-manufacturing PMI, which makes up the biggest chunk of the US economy, is forecast to inch up to 53.8 in August, while factory orders are forecast to have risen for a second straight month in July.
The key event of the week will be the August jobs report, as it could be the deciding factor for a possible rate cut in September. The US labour market is expected to have added 159k jobs, signalling that although the pace of job creation has slowed, the momentum is still strong. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 3.7%, while average hourly earnings are projected to have increased by 3.1% y/y. In UK, British MPs return from their summer break and following the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue Parliament, all eyes will be on whether the opposition Labour party decides to call a vote of no-confidence.
RBA is expected to keep interest rates steady following two cuts earlier in the summer. BoC will also announce its decision, and although it too is anticipated to leave policy unchanged, the language of its statement will be significant as speculation grows about whether the Bank is on the brink of switching to an easing bias.